Technical View: July Series Opens Strong: Will Nifty Break 25,800 to Spark a New Bull Run?

The Nifty 50 kicked off the July futures series on June 27 by closing at 25,638, its highest level since October 2024. Fresh FII inflows combined with an India VIX plunge to 12.39, a nine-month low, underscored renewed bullish conviction.

Bullish Momentum & Key Resistance

For the third session in a row, Nifty extended gains and formed its sixth consecutive higher low, closing above the upper Bollinger Band on enhanced volumes. A sustained close above the 25,750–25,800 zone, the upper gap-down boundary from October 3, 2024, is essential to clear the path toward 26,000. Beyond that, the next target is last year’s record high of 26,277.

Critical Support Zones

On the downside, the 25,300 to 25,400 range aligns with the middle Bollinger Band and prior consolidation lows, offering a strong cushion against profit-taking. A breakdown below 25,300 could drag the index toward 25,000, where buyers may re-enter.

Options Market Clues

Weekly options data reveal maximum call open interest at the 26,000 strike, signalling sellers may defend this level. The 25,900 and 25,700 strikes also show heavy call writing. On the put side, 25,500, 25,400, and 25,000 strikes dominate, highlighting these as key support points for hedgers.

Bank Nifty Continues Uptrend

Bank Nifty outperformed with a 237-point gain to 57,444, closing above its upper Bollinger Band as well. Technical experts suggest holding 57,250 to target 58,000–58,500; failure here could see a pullback toward 57,000.

Volatility Near Cycle Lows

With India VIX sliding 1.6% to 12.39, market turbulence is at a nine-month trough. Historically, such low volatility precedes decisive breakouts, giving bulls the upper hand as they aim to challenge key resistances.

Momentum Indicators

Daily RSI sits above 65, indicating healthy bullish momentum without overbought extremes. The Stochastic RSI remains in the positive zone, and the MACD histogram shows expanding green bars, all pointing toward continued upside potential in the near term.

Trading Strategy

• Aggressive bulls may enter on a clear close above 25,800, targeting 26,000 and 26,277.
• Conservative traders can wait for a retest of 25,500–25,600 support before adding exposure.
• Risk management: place stops just below 25,300 for long positions to limit downside.

Conclusion

A decisive break and hold above 25,800—backed by low volatility and strong momentum—could mark the start of a fresh bull run, with 26,000 as the next logical hurdle. Keep an eye on options positioning and Bank Nifty’s performance to gauge overall market conviction.

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