📊 Weekly Market Summary – May 30, 2025

Source: TheAIBull Digest | Based on Schwab Markets Blog

📅 Market Recap: A Week of Trade Twists and Mixed Sentiment

Markets held up surprisingly well this week, even as trade tensions reemerged. The S&P 500 bounced off its 200-day moving average and ended the week slightly higher, backed by strong technical support and lower treasury yields. The week began on a bullish note as President Trump extended trade talks with the EU, but sentiment soured late in the week after he accused China of violating trade agreements, raising concerns of escalation.

Despite this, equities remained relatively stable. Cooling bond yields and softer inflation data from the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report contributed to a more positive risk environment.

🔧 Key Drivers This Week

🧾 Trade Developments

• Trump extended EU trade talks but later accused China of violating the trade truce.
• The U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Trump’s reciprocal tariffs were unconstitutional, though the White House secured a stay via appeal.
• Markets remain cautious, but volatility from trade headlines is more muted than last month.

💡 Economic Highlights

• PCE inflation (YoY) dropped to 2.1%, easing rate fears.
• Personal income rose 0.8% (above estimates), while spending rose just 0.2%.
• Consumer confidence jumped to 98.0, but jobless claims rose to 240K.
• Durable goods orders showed mixed signals: headline down -6.3%, but core rose 0.2%.

💹 Rate & Yield Watch

• Treasury yields fell across the board:
• 2-year: down ~9bps to 3.90%
• 10-year: down ~10bps to 4.40%
• 30-year: down ~11bps to 4.92%
• Fed rate cut expectations increased: now forecasting ~2.17 cuts in 2025 (up from 1.92 last week).

📈 Technical Take

S&P 500 (SPX)

• Rebounded off the 200-day SMA, signaling short-term support.
• Failed to make a new high, indicating a potential consolidation between 5,785–5,965.
• Near-term view: Neutral
• Intermediate-term view: Bullish

Dow Jones (DJI)

• Still below its 200-day SMA, making it technically more fragile.
• No breakdown yet, but lacks upward momentum.
• Near-term view: Cautious to Slightly Bearish

🧠 Market Breadth Check

Percentage of stocks trading above their 200-day SMA (week-over-week):

• S&P 500: 50.00% ↑
• Nasdaq: 34.41% ↑
• Russell 2000: 32.67% ↑

This indicates a slightly improving breadth, suggesting broader market participation.

🪙 Crypto Corner

Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) announced plans to raise $2.5 billion to buy and hold Bitcoin. The company plans to issue stock and convertible debt to fund the purchase, positioning Bitcoin as a “financial freedom asset” on its balance sheet.

📅 Key Events Next Week

Economic Data: • Mon (6/2): Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing
• Tue (6/3): Factory Orders
• Wed (6/4): ADP Employment, ISM Services
• Thu (6/5): Weekly Jobless Claims, Trade Balance
• Fri (6/6): Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Consumer Credit

Earnings Highlights: • Mon: Campbell’s, SAIC
• Tue: Dollar General, NIO, CrowdStrike
• Wed: MongoDB, Dollar Tree, Five Below
• Thu: Broadcom, Lululemon
• Fri: No major reports

🧾 Notable 52-Week Highs & Lows

Highs: ADP, Netflix, GE Vernova, Zscaler
Lows: Alexandria Real Estate, Arbor Realty, Nabors Industries

📌 Forecast Summary

• This Week: Slightly Bullish — markets bounced off technical support
• Next Week: Neutral to Slightly Bearish due to consolidation risk and potential trade flare-ups
• Watch out for Friday’s jobs report and any surprise trade headlines that could shake market confidence.

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