On July 2, 2025, the Indian rupee slipped 0.2%, closing at ₹85.7025 against the U.S. dollar. The dollar strengthened in anticipation of key U.S. economic data, including the non-farm payrolls report due July 3.

Asian peers also felt the pressure: the Malaysian ringgit led declines with a 0.7% drop, while the dollar index rose 0.3%, hovering just below the 97 mark.


What’s Driving the Move?

  1. U.S. Data in Focus: Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic numbers on July 1 bolstered the dollar, as traders brace for Thursday’s payrolls report.
  2. Tariff Deadline Looms: President Trump has set a July 9 deadline for trade agreements. While he expects a deal with India, he has ruled out any extension, keeping markets on edge.

Volatility Remains Muted

Despite the deadline, the rupee’s near-term implied volatility sits just below its three-month average. This suggests traders do not foresee any sharp moves in the coming days, even as trade talks reach their crunch point.

ING analysts warn that markets may take the deadline with a grain of salt. “Global tariff threats often peak before a last-minute reprieve,” they note, implying the chance of another extension remains alive.


Outlook for the Rupee

A Reuters poll of 41 FX strategists expects the rupee to remain range-bound:

  • 3 months: 85.75 per USD (0.1% weaker)
  • 6 months: 85.50 per USD (slight recovery)
  • 1 year: 86.13 per USD (moderate weakness)

Given these forecasts, the rupee is likely to trade in a tight band, tracking broader Asian currencies and dollar movements.


Key Takeaways:

  • The rupee fell to ₹85.7025 as the dollar gained on U.S. data.
  • Near-term volatility remains muted despite an approaching tariff deadline.
  • Strategists see the rupee trading between 85.50 and 86.13 over the next year.

Stay tuned for updates on currency trends and trade negotiations.

About the Author

john 2

john 2

Published on 2025/07/04

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